Decide With the 70% Rule — Act Before You're 100% Sure
Waiting for 100% certainty is how good decisions die slow. The 70% Rule — used by Jeff Bezos and Colin Powell — says act when you have about 70% of the information. Learn when to move and when to wait.
The idea
Both Jeff Bezos and General Colin Powell used a version of the same rule: don't wait for all the information to decide. Bezos aims to decide with about 70% of what he'd like to know — waiting for 90% usually means you're too slow. Powell put the window at 40–70%: below 40% you're guessing, but above 70% you've waited too long and lost the advantage. The key pairing: most decisions are reversible "two-way doors" you can walk back, so decide fast. Only the rare irreversible "one-way doors" deserve extra caution.
Who is this for?
Aisha Khan
Marketing Lead · Hyderabad
Aisha sat on a campaign decision for three weeks, gathering "just a bit more" data while the launch window shrank.
She applied the 70% Rule: the choice was reversible — a two-way door — and she already had ~75% of what she needed. So she decided in an afternoon.
The campaign shipped on time and beat target by 18%. The extra three weeks of data, she realized, would have changed nothing.
"I wasn't being careful. I was being slow — and calling it careful."
What you'll get
The two-way vs one-way door test
Instantly tell reversible decisions (move fast) from irreversible ones (slow down).
A 70% confidence line
A clear signal for when you have enough info to decide — and can stop gathering.
Faster decisions this week
One stalled decision you've been sitting on, made today.
Less analysis paralysis
A rule that frees you from the trap of endless "just a bit more research."
Watch
Lex Fridman Podcast Clips · ~9 min
Do the challenge
1Name the decision and the door type
Write the decision in one line. Then ask: if this goes wrong, can I reverse it? Yes = two-way door (decide fast). No / very costly = one-way door (take more care).
💡 Most day-to-day work decisions are two-way doors. We treat them like one-way doors and waste weeks. Naming the door type is half the fix.
2Estimate your confidence
Roughly, what percent of the information you'd ideally want do you already have? If it's around 70% or more on a two-way door — that's your green light to decide.
3Ask what the last 30% would actually change
The honest question that breaks paralysis: would more data change your decision, or just make you feel better about it? If it wouldn't change the call, you already have your answer.
💡 I need to decide: [decision]. I have roughly [X]% of the info I'd like. It is [reversible / irreversible]. Ask me 3 sharp questions to check if I'm at 70% confidence. Then tell me honestly: would waiting for more information likely change this decision, or am I just avoiding the call?
4Decide and set a review date
Make the call now. For a two-way door, add a date to check results and adjust. Deciding fast plus reviewing beats deciding perfectly and late.
Your template
THE 70% DECISION CARD THE DECISION (one line): ______________________________________________ DOOR TYPE: □ Two-way door (reversible) → decide FAST □ One-way door (irreversible/costly) → take more care MY CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW: ______ % (40–70% = decide zone for reversible calls; under 40% = get a little more; over 70% = you're late) THE PARALYSIS-BREAKER: Would the missing info actually CHANGE my decision? □ Yes → get that specific piece, nothing more □ No → I already have my answer. Decide now. MY DECISION: _________________________________ REVIEW DATE: _______ (check results, adjust)
Knowledge Check
5 quick questions to make sure the main ideas landed.
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Share the challenge — streaks are more fun together.
Tomorrow
The Written Ask — Put Your Request in Writing
Vague, verbal requests get forgotten. A clear written ask — one specific request, a reason, and a deadline — is on record, easy to say yes to, and hard to ignore. Learn the 4-line formula.
